Hi,
This presentation was partially delivered on March 15, 2014
to Equity Pune group and later improvised. In this presentation, I discussed challenges
in front of world Coffee industry in general and prospects of Tata Coffee in particular
and why the stock is all set to give handsome returns.
You may download the presentation from the link:
Please share your valuable feedback.
Regards,
Niteen S Dharmawat
5 comments:
The stock is on fire today and crossed 1041. It was discussed about 2 weeks ago at 930. A good 12% jump in less than a month.
You may access the presentation: http://www.slideshare.net/ndharmawat/tata-coffee-discover-the-refreshing-world-of-value-pick
Drought in Brazil and impact on share price of Tata Coffee was the theme of my presentation. The drought situation is extremely bad. This may also affect their next year's crop also. See some of the latest news articles using the links below.
www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-24/high-coffee-prices-seen-supported-by-brazil-plight.html
www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/mar/28/climate-change-bad-expensive-coffee-ipcc
www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2014/03/brazil-drought-brews-trouble-coffee-farms-201432581634266332.html
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Brazilian-output-shortfall-kicks-up-coffee-prices/articleshow/32796089.cms
Disc.: I hold the stock.
Average Q4 results by Tata Coffee. Stock will remain under pressure for sometime. The coffee prices in international market are still close to year high levels and almost 22% more than when we discussed the stock last. As expected the coffee prices may get reflected in Tata Coffee result in next quarter.
http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/Tata_Coffee_Ltd_140514_Rst.pdf
Cheers,
Niteen S Dharmawat
Disc.: Holding the stock.
Dear Niteen Sir,
any update on Tata Coffee or coffee production? Will the current less rainfall situation in India affect Tata Coffee?
Kiran, if the rainfall in the area of Coorg, Chickmaglur, Hassan in Karnataka and Valparai district in Tamil Nadu is average or below average than it will have an adverse impact on Tata Coffee production. But we are just a month in the rainy season. It will be difficult to predict mansoon and its impact on Tata Coffee production at this point of time.
Thank you Kiran for the link. There are many such articles get published some of them may write positive impact of drought on Coffee prices while others do not write so positively. Nothing against those articles as the view point may have a different basis. We need to be rational. I suggest you to check the coffee prices of last at least 18 months at NASDAQ or London Exchanges where it is traded. I am providing you one such link. The coffee prices are up 65% from the bottom made about 10 months ago. Those who are not talking about the positive impact of the Brazilian drought on coffee prices may have been expecting the coffee prices to increase more than 65%. In my opinion 65% itself is a good number to give a positive profit momentum to coffee companies.
See coffee prices: http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/coffee.aspx?timeframe=18m
Disc.: I hold Tata Coffee and my views can be biased. You may research or self study before taking any decision.
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